ECFR polling and analysis ahead of this week’s european council

POLLING: In a recent pan-European survey, of more than 15,000 citizens in ten EU member states (plus the UK), ECFR found:

• Europeans were becoming more positive about the EU before last month’s vaccination programme misstep. In Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden – countries where ECFR conducted a poll in both 2019 and 2020 – the average share of people who say that the EU’s political system works very well or fairly well had increased from 46% to 48% since January 2019. Meanwhile, those who say that the system is somewhat or completely broken had decreased from 45% to 43% during this period. This suggests that EU cohesion is important to Europeans.
   
• Germany is now most likely to be considered the most important country to “have a good relationship” with. Respondents in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Hungary were most likely to choose Germany as the most important country to build a good relationship with. While, in Germany, 38% chose France as their most important ally. Only respondents in Great Britain (55%), Poland (45%), Italy (36%), and Sweden (36%) ranked the US first over Germany on this measure.
   
• Europe’s security partnership with the United States is in a fragile state – with very few European’s holding the view that the United States would intervene on their behalf in the event of a military crisis. Just 10% of those polled viewed the US as a “reliable” security partner that will always protect Europe, while at least 60% of respondents in every country polled – and 67% across all the countries – believe their country cannot depend on US support in the event of a major crisis.
   
• European’s support investing in their own defence capabilities – rather than relying on Washington. Two thirds of those surveyed indicated a preference for European-level defence over the US security guarantee – with this backing most pronounced in Portugal (72%), Sweden (71%), Spain (71%), France (70%) and Poland (69%). Interestingly, 74% of British respondents also shared this view, despite the UK no longer being an EU member state.

ANALYSIS: On the subject of the EU’s pandemic strategy, and the bloc’s preparedness for future threats, ECFR’s Anthony Dworkin believes EU leaders should take immediate action to address the disparity in vaccine stocks between rich and poorer nations:

• Dworkin argues that EU leaders should offer a share of all future vaccine deliveries – perhaps up to 5%, as Emmanuel Macron has suggested – to the global COVAX programme or directly to countries in the European neighbourhood and Africa.
   
• He also calls on the bloc to make a major investment in building up vaccine manufacturing capacity in Africa and other emerging economies. This need not involve changing intellectual property rules for pharmaceutical companies, according to Dworkin, since these facilities could operate under license. This move would offer greater capacity to produce vaccines quickly and distribute them more equitably in this and future health crises.
   
• And, last, Dworkin believes that it is important for the EU to back the work of the WHO and its place at the centre of global health. He stresses that, while there are lessons to be learned from Covid-19, the world needs to look for methods of bringing greater transparency and accountability to pandemic preparedness. He suggests that the EU look to support the emergence of a more rigorous system which nation states can opt into, including through signing up to a new pandemic treaty – which will create alert mechanisms that rely more on informal networks and new technology.

Further analysis across this weekend’s council agenda, from leading experts including Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, Anthony Dworkin, Gustav Gressel, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, Tarek Megerisi, Nicu Popescu and Tara Varma can be accessed at ECFR’s website, below:

• European cohesion in the age of Covid
• How the European Green Deal can succeed in Morocco and Tunisia
• Promoting European Strategic Sovereignty in the Southern Neighbourhood
• How Europe can save diplomacy in Libya
• Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
• The EU’s misguided export regulation on vaccines

POLLING:

ECFR commissioned polling in eleven European countries through Datapraxis and YouGov in late November and early December 2020 (i.e. before the Capitol riot). In total, 15,197 respondents participated in the survey across 11 countries. The sample sizes were as follows: Denmark (n = 1,037), France (n = 2,013), Germany (n = 2,060), Hungary (n=1,001), Italy (n=2,017), Netherlands (n = 1,005), Poland (n = 1,002), Portugal (n=1,004), Spain (n=1,017), Sweden (n = 1,010), and Great Britain (n=2,031). The results are politically and nationally representative samples. The exact dates of polling were: Denmark (20-25 November), France (25-26 November), Germany (25-27 November), Hungary (24 November – 2 December), Italy (24 November – 3 December), Netherlands (24 November – 2 December), Poland (24 November – 7 December), Portugal (24 November – 7 December), Spain (20-25 November), Sweden (24-27 November), and Great Britain (24-25 November).

Further details, including methodology and analysis from Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev, can be found here.