Bumper soybean crop expected for 2023/24

If this forecast were to come true, soybean production would see the sharpest yearon-year rise in ten years. The forecast is mainly based on significantly higher yield expectations in Argentina following this year’s historic drought. Argentina accounts for more than half of the expected harvest increase, with production reaching 48.0 million tonnes (+21 million tonnes on the previous year). Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay account for more than a quarter, which is due to both an expansion in area planted and yield increases. Brazil will probably remain the world’s number one soybean producer with 163.0 million tonnes (+8 million tonnes). Although the US soybean area is likely to remain unchanged, the USDA sees US production up 6.4 million tonnes (to 122.7 million tonnes) on the previous year. The main reason is anticipated yield increases.

At the same time, the USDA presents the prospect of an increase in global soybean consumption in 2023/24. According to the latest estimate, soy consumption is set to reach 386.5 million tonnes, around 21.4 million tonnes more than the previous year. According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), with world production at 410.6 million tonnes, this would mean an expected supply surplus of 24.1 million tonnes. As a consequence, ending stocks 2023/24 would likely rise for the second year running, to 122.5 million tonnes, thus exceeding the previous year’s volume by 21.5 million tonnes and setting a new record high,