Argentina no longer among top three soy exporters

In its latest report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the global soybean crop in 2022/23 to reach around 375 million tonnes. This would be down just under 8 million tonnes from the February forecast, but up 17 million tonnes on 2021/2022. The decrease of the forecast compared to the previous month is mainly based on the drastically lowered outlook of Argentine production. The country has been struggling with continued dryness and extreme heat for several weeks, which is hampering yield prospects further. Argentina is expected to harvest only around 33 million tonnes of soybeans, 8 million tonnes or just under one fifth less than projected in February. With regard to other key soybean producing countries, such as Brazil, the US and India, the USDA holds on to its previous month’s forecast.

World consumption is seen at around 371.1 million tonnes, down 5.3 million tonnes from the February forecast. Nevertheless, this translates to an increase of almost 9 per cent on the previous marketing year. The USDA lowered its consumption forecast especially for Argentina, to around 41 million tonnes in the current crop year. This is down 3.6 million tonnes from the February estimate and down 5.1 million tonnes on 2021/22. According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), China’s consumption is also likely to decline, more specifically just about 2.0 million tonnes to the projected 113.3 million tonnes.

Based on data from the USDA, around 100 million tonnes of soybeans are expected to be in storage at the end of the current marketing year, just over 2 million tonnes less than estimated in February, but about 1 million tonnes more than last year. Whereas China’s stocks are seen to increase just under 2 million tonnes compared to the February forecast to 34.3 million tonnes, Argentine and Brazilian ending stocks are expected to shrink 2.6 million tonnes and 0.7 million tonnes respectively to 19.8 million tonnes and 31.5 million tonnes. Also, US ending stocks are projected to decline 0.4 million tonnes to 5.7 million tonnes.

On a global scale, around 168.4 million tonnes of soybeans will likely be shipped across the world’s oceans in 2022/23. In other words, the USDA revised its previous month’s forecast up just under 1 million tonnes. By comparison, just less than 154 million tonnes were shipped in the previous crop year. The increase over the previous month is especially based on expected larger exports from Brazil. Due to the considerably larger harvest, Brazil is seen to export approximately 92.7 million tonnes. The US is likely to ship around 54.8 million tonnes in 2022/23. With exports projected at 4.3 million tonnes, Argentina is poised to lose third place among exporters to Paraguay and Canada.