A return to Africa: Why North African states are looking south

A new policy brief by ECFR senior policy fellow Anthony Dworkin offers a stock-take of the African strategies of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt. The North African turn towards Africa is driven by several factors:

• Some countries are engaged in an effort to win diplomatic support on significant questions of national interest: for Morocco and Algeria, the dispute over Western Sahara and their broader strategic rivalry; in the case of Egypt, its concern about the giant dam that Ethiopia is building on the Nile.  
• Beyond this diplomatic effort, the focus is also a response to the rising security threats and flow of migration reaching North African countries from the south.  
• North African countries are searching for new markets and seeking to position themselves for the economic and demographic growth expected in sub-Saharan Africa in the coming years. This has been given new impetus by the continuing slow growth rates of North Africa’s traditional European trading partners.  
• The turn to the south is also a reaction to the failure of regional integration within North Africa, where trade between countries remains low. Economic and political cooperation, for example through the Arab Maghreb Union, is held hostage in particular to the Algerian-Moroccan stand-off over Western Sahara.  

At a time when the EU is also seeking to deepen its relationship with sub-Saharan Africa, based around negotiating guidelines unveiled in March 2020, the North African turn southwards deserves greater European attention:

• The EU should take account of the complex nature of North African engagement with sub-Saharan Africa in its relations with the continent. It will get better results from its cooperation with North African countries on migration if it understands the African context of its partners’ policies.  
• In the field of security, the EU and its member states should welcome signs that Algeria is re-engaging in the Sahel and encourage it to build links with the G5 Sahel and to contribute actively to stabilisation and development.  
• As the EU looks to deepen its relationship with Africa, it should naturally seek to coordinate where possible with North African continental initiatives. Commercial ties between Maghreb countries and the Sahel could help European objectives of promoting stability.  
• There is also scope for Europe to pursue triangular cooperation with North African countries in sub-Saharan Africa, joining together on projects in areas where North Africa has relevant experience to share.  
• At the same time, the EU should remain cautious about aligning itself too strongly with North African strategies in Africa. Triangular cooperation is only valuable to the extent that all parties genuinely share objectives and the arrangement offers added value.

Above all, European policymakers should be aware of the interests, tensions, and rivalries that underlie North African policies on the continent. Sub-Saharan Africa’s stance towards North Africa is increasingly pragmatic. A correspondingly pragmatic approach – that looks for convergence where possible but remains alive to the national agendas of powerful North African countries – would provide the best foundation for Europe’s own relationship with Africa.

About the author:

Anthony Dworkin is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He leads the organisation’s work in the areas of human rights, democracy, and justice. Among other subjects, Dworkin has conducted research and written on European and US frameworks for counterterrorism, the European Union’s human rights strategy, and the pursuit of justice in the international response to mass atrocities. Since 2011, he has also followed political developments in North Africa after the Arab uprisings, with a particular focus on Egypt and Tunisia.